To reduce the number of false positives mentioned in our previous blog and to have the more realistic behavior in voting, instead of just randomly distributing the votes in the precincts among the candidates, we planned to do with different approach. The new approach we tried was to simulate the voting based on the policies. In this mechanism we selected 8 different set of policies like :
1:Should abortion remain a legal option in America?;
2:Should law enforcement be allowed to use racial profiling?;
3:Should the federal deficit be reduced without raising any taxes?;
4:Are the March 2010 federal health care reform laws “Obamacare” good for America?;
5: Should state and local law enforcement be empowered to enforce federal immigration laws?;
6: Should gay marriage be legal?;
7: Should marijuana be a medical option?;
8: Should the wealthiest 1 of Americans be taxed more heavily?;
source for policies(http://2012election.procon.org/view.source-summary-chart.php)
and after this we allocated the likeliness of each policies for all voter whose value comes from uniform distribution and from that we calculated the distance of voter with each candidate and the candidate with the min distance is the person whom the voter would vote.
The results of this mechanism conforms was better than than our previous approach as by this the number of false positives reduced from 30% to 10% but the downside is this approach is much slower than our previous one.
So the next step is
1) First to reduce the false-positives from 10% for this we have started working on the approach called as FDR(False Discovery rate) .
2) Will be trying to make this process faster and will try to simulate for whole USA, as right now we are just doing only for one state(Alaska) which is small and have total of 442 precincts.